NHC says 60 percent chance of cyclone over northwestern Caribbean Sea

All of Tuesday's computer models project 93L to remain east of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will steer the disturbance northeastward

Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today. In the next 48 hours, it has a 30 percent chance of development.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara.

Alice developed on January 30 and reached winds of 90 miles per hour before dissipating on January 6.

The disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Cuba during the next two days.

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Most track model tracks have the storm avoiding South Florida, but forecasts on systems before they organize can be many miles off. It's questionable how far north the heavier rain from Invest 93 will move before the front pushes all the tropical moisture out into the Atlantic. Forecasters gave the system a 60 percent chance of forming, then backed off the odds when it looked like high winds associated with a cold front crossing South Florida would hinder intensification. One to three inches of rain are possible generally near and south of a line from Naples to Fort Pierce. This is a hotbed of tropical origins that we'll be watching through the end of October and into November.

In the record-setting 2005 season, three tropical storms formed in the Atlantic.

According to weather.com, most late season hurricanes form in the Gulf or in the Caribbean because the water hasn't cooled down significantly, and the wind shear is weaker.

Invest 93L is a broad area of low pressure now producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in Nicaragua and Honduras.

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